Impact of sanctions on Russia's exports in 2022 (Part 2)
Research Summary
August 2022
As part of the research into the export potential of Russian products, the SBS Consulting team has updated its latest overview of Russian exports, taking into account the new sanctions packages (6 and 7):
- In the previous part of the research (dated 22.04.2022) it was forecasted that taking into account the introduction of the 3rd, 4th, 5th packages of sanctions and internal restrictions, the volume of Russian exports would increase by 13% in 2022 compared to the 2021 level. After the introduction of the 6th and 7th packages of sanctions, exports are expected to decrease by 4% to 471.5 bln rubles. The total losses are estimated at $139.6 bln.
- Russian exports will be most affected by the EU's external sanctions of the 6th package, which are expected to reduce Russia's exports by $73.2 bln in 2022, while there has been an expansion in the number of countries joining the imposition of sanctions:
- The sanctions contained in the 6th package are aimed at banning imports from Russia of goods in the ‘fossil fuels’ category ($73.7bn) and expanding the list of goods under the 5th package of sanctions in the ‘food’ category ($0.2bn)
- The sanctions contained in the 7th package are aimed at banning imports from the Russian Federation of goods in the ‘precious metals and stones’ category ($9.7 bдn), with gold accounting for 99.9% of the total.
- Under the 6th and 7th packages, the Russian Federation is most dependent on supplies to the EU of oil and oil products from bituminous rocks, while the EU is most dependent on supplies from the Russian Federation of residues from starch production
— Switzerland has joined the EU sanctions: the country supported the 6th and 7th packages; Russia's exports are projected to decline by $0.9 bln in 2022.
— G7 countries adopted an embargo on Russian gold exports. The largest losses are expected due to the cessation of trade with the UK in the amount of $9.3 bln.
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