RES development in Russia: what is the benefit of China's experience
Research Summary
October 2023
The use of renewable energy sources is a key element of the global agenda to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to overcome the climate crisis, which is also becoming necessary for Russia. On the world stage, China is the leader in investing in clean energy and the largest player in the market of electricity production from renewable sources. Due to the projected achievement of "network parity" in China by 2026, as well as in Russia in the future after 2035, the focus of the study is on the applicability of the main technologies used in China for implementation into the trajectory of the renewable energy market in Russia. China has emerged as a leading global player in renewable energy sources (RES) in recent years, showing impressive growth rates in investment and adoption of new technologies. According to SBS Consulting, China has invested about $183 bln in RES from 2018 to 2023, far exceeding other countries including the European Union and the United States. As a result, the share of RES in China's total electricity generation reached 32%, well above the global average share. In Russia, despite the significant potential for RES development, the share is only 2%. The SBS Consulting study offers a comprehensive analysis of the Chinese approach and identifies opportunities for its adaptation to the Russian context.

1. RES investment and development

  • Between 2018 and 2022, China rapidly increased the share of RES in its energy mix, enabling the country to reduce its dependence on fossil energy sources. The share of RES increased by 19 percentage points, reaching 75% by 2022. At the same time, the share of fossil fuels decreased by 14 percentage points to 14%.
  • The share of RES in Russia increased by 17 percentage points from 2018, bringing its share in the country's energy mix to 31%. At the same time, the share of nuclear energy decreased by 15 percentage points.

2. Technology trends and priorities

  • China is rapidly developing technologies related to wind and solar power. In 2022, power generation capacity from these sources accounted for 65% of the total RES. Particular attention is paid to the development of floating offshore wind platforms and increased capacity turbines, which allow efficient utilisation of offshore wind resources.
  • Hydropower dominates in Russia, accounting for 54% of total RES investments. Wind and solar energy account for only 8% of the country's total energy mix. More significant results require the development of technologies such as floating offshore wind platforms and hybrid systems for power generation.

3. Economic efficiency and forecasting

  • In China, the cost of electricity from RES is projected to equal that of coal-fired generation by 2026. This will be possible due to lower generation costs and increased technology efficiency. In Russia, similar changes are expected after 2035 due to slower adoption of new technologies and lower investment.

4. Recommendations on technology adaptation

  • Russia has significant potential to adapt a number of Chinese RES technologies. This includes floating offshore wind platforms that can be effectively utilised in the country's vast water areas. It is also recommended to develop a climate forecast system to optimise power generation and improve resource efficiency.
  • Hybrid power plants combining solar and hydropower can significantly improve the stability and reliability of the power system and contribute to reducing the cost of power generation.

5. Comparison of the electricity production structure

  • In 2022, the share of RES in total electricity generation in China was 31%, while in Russia it reached only 2%. Wind and solar power account for the major share in China's energy production structure, while hydropower dominates in Russia.
  • The cost of electricity generation from wind and solar energy in Russia is significantly higher than in China. However, it is expected that by 2035 it will almost match the cost of coal-fired generation, which will create incentives for further RES development.

6. Technology adaptation and future prospects

  • China is successfully introducing floating offshore wind platforms that allow the use of turbines with increased capacity. These technologies could be adapted in Russia, especially given the significant wind potential on the coasts.
  • The climate forecast system used in China to optimise renewable energy production could become an important tool for Russia, helping to improve the management and efficiency of energy resources.

Conclusion

The development of renewable energy sources is becoming a key factor for sustainable economic growth and energy security in today's world. China demonstrates impressive results in this area, rapidly developing technologies and increasing investments. Russia, with its significant potential, can use China's expertise to accelerate its development in the sphere of renewable energy.

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